Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Forex Trading Strategy - Why You Cant Predict Currency Prices!

A fatal mistake made by many novice Forex traders is they think they need to predict where prices will go to win in there Forex trading strategy. You don’t have to predict to win and if you try predicting you will lose – let’s examine why in more detail.

If you are predicting the future you are simply hoping or guessing – know one knows what will happen.

Let’s look at a common example in currency trading.

A trader sees a support level and wants to buy a dip into support so he waits for the price to dip to the level and executes his trading signal.

What he is doing is doing what many currency traders do - buying a dip but he is simply hoping the level will hold.

The professional forex trader knows that predicting is a waste of time and money and acts on confirmation only.

Use Momentum To CONFIRM

Rather than buying into a support level and hoping it holds they wait for proof that it has held by watching momentum indicators – when the prices turn up above support they enter.

They are not predicting they are trading the reality of price change and this is what you must do to if you want to win with your forex trading strategy.

Great momentum indicators to put in your Forex trading strategy are: The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic. If you don’t know how they work look them up.

Scientific Theories

A common myth in currency trading is that you can predict the future. Step forward all the scientific theories that predict such as WD Gann and Elliot wave.

They don’t work and the reason is pretty obvious – if prices could be predicted we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. It is the uncertainty and different opinions that make a market.

When you are trading currency markets you can’t predict as although human nature is constant it is also un predictable and this makes trading an odds game.

If you are trading the odds then you need to act on the reality of confirmation NOT Hope or guess.

So if you have been simply buying dips to support and not getting proof that it will hold before trading look up how momentum indicators work now!

By: Monica Hendrix

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Sunday, September 27, 2009

Forex Trading - A Simple 4 Point Way To Making Big Profits

I read a lot about how difficult forex trading is, but making money from Forex trading is essentially simple if you keep in mind the following 4 points.

I have tried to illustrate this live and showed 3 trading opportunities and all made great profits and had low risk.

Let’s look at this simple way to make profits more closely:

1. You Are responsible

If you think you can buy an e-book and make yourself rich by paying $100 think again.

Most of the advice sold on the net is not worth the paper it’s written on. If you want to buy a system keep in mind the following:

1. Make sure the vendor trades it and has made real money and the track record is NOT just a simulation.

2. If you do buy a system make sure you know how and why the logic works:


If you don’t know why it works you will not have the discipline to follow it and discipline is essential when trading.

If you don’t have discipline to apply it you don’t have a method in the first place.

2. A simple method

If you follow a system or build your own keep it simple.

Simple systems work best and are far better than complicated ones.


Because they are less likely to break in the face of ever changing brutal market conditions.

How simple?

We use support resistance and just 3 indicators:

Stochastics, Bollinger bands and RSI.

The best methodology to use is to utilize breakouts and sing trade within the trend.

Note: Never day trade this is a great way to lose your money quickly as you have no valid data to work with.

Finally, if you use a system like the above - always trade on confirmation from your charts to get into your position so price momentum is on your side:

Don’t guess or try and predict!

This is a mistake made by many novice traders.

3. Money management

Trading using critical support and resistance means that stops are easy to place and risk can be kept low.
4. Targets

Trade with a target where you want to take profit.

Resist the temptation to trail stops to quickly – that will simply see you knocked out the trade by volatility.

Once you have reached you target you can liquidate, or trail your stop then but not before.

Don’t make money management complicated or try and lock in profits to quickly or have stops to close this is a major reason traders lose.

This sounds to simple!

Yes it is simple - but it works.

Many traders think the more effort they put in the more they will get out of trading, but there is no correlation between the effort you make and profits you achieve.

Work smart not hard.

Trading is essentially simple and relies on a logical robust method you understand.

You will then have the confidence to apply it with discipline.

Many people try and beat the market or think they can win all the time and buy bottoms and sell tops – You cant!

The aim of forex trading is simply to make above average profits and if you keep it simple you will.

If you try and be to clever, or get to complicated in your approach you will lose.

By: sacha Tarkovsky

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