Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Forex Trading Strategy - Why You Cant Predict Currency Prices!

A fatal mistake made by many novice Forex traders is they think they need to predict where prices will go to win in there Forex trading strategy. You don’t have to predict to win and if you try predicting you will lose – let’s examine why in more detail.

If you are predicting the future you are simply hoping or guessing – know one knows what will happen.

Let’s look at a common example in currency trading.

A trader sees a support level and wants to buy a dip into support so he waits for the price to dip to the level and executes his trading signal.

What he is doing is doing what many currency traders do - buying a dip but he is simply hoping the level will hold.

The professional forex trader knows that predicting is a waste of time and money and acts on confirmation only.

Use Momentum To CONFIRM

Rather than buying into a support level and hoping it holds they wait for proof that it has held by watching momentum indicators – when the prices turn up above support they enter.

They are not predicting they are trading the reality of price change and this is what you must do to if you want to win with your forex trading strategy.

Great momentum indicators to put in your Forex trading strategy are: The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic. If you don’t know how they work look them up.

Scientific Theories

A common myth in currency trading is that you can predict the future. Step forward all the scientific theories that predict such as WD Gann and Elliot wave.

They don’t work and the reason is pretty obvious – if prices could be predicted we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. It is the uncertainty and different opinions that make a market.

When you are trading currency markets you can’t predict as although human nature is constant it is also un predictable and this makes trading an odds game.

If you are trading the odds then you need to act on the reality of confirmation NOT Hope or guess.

So if you have been simply buying dips to support and not getting proof that it will hold before trading look up how momentum indicators work now!

By: Monica Hendrix

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